Submitted by Rob Roy
with thanks to California Central Valley Habitat Joint Venture/Habitat Fun Pack
Submitted by Rob Roy
with thanks to California Central Valley Habitat Joint Venture/Habitat Fun Pack
Introduction:
Many things are possible, but the chances of some things are even better than that. They are probable.
Prior Knowledge:
We learn about probability in math, and we show it as a fraction.Example: If we had 3 marbles (2 blue and 1 white) in a bag, when reaching into the marble bag, the probability of getting a blue marble is 2 out of 3 or 2/3.
Grade Level: 4-5+
Although the following lesson is a mathematical probability lesson, many of the links can be directed to a science lesson about the Wetlands.
Task:
When we look at percentage (comparing by the 100, or per 100). we can also see probability. Look at the following information regarding the different kinds of ducks seen on a wildlife refuge:Pintails 36%
American Widgeon 20%
Green-winged Teal 16%
Mallard 11%
Northern Shoveler 10%
Unidentified 7%The probability of a duck at this refuge being a pintail is 36 out of 100, or P=36/100.
Process:
The students should then be able to calculate the probability of spotting an American Widgeon, Green-winged Teal, Mallard, etc.Now, students can use the above information and a calculator to determine the number of ducks seen given the information that there were 12,000,000 duck spottings (sightings), how many of them would be:
Pintails?
American Widgeon?
Green-winged Teal?
Mallard?
Northern Shoveler?The following formula should be used: Pintails 36/100 x 12,000,000 = 4,320,000
Evaluation:
Students will be evaluated on their ability to identify the probability and number of the above ducks. Sample Student Report Sample Student Graph
Extensions:
Again, this is a probability lesson, but there are numerous sites on the Internet that can be utilized in teaching a science unit on the Wetlands.Also, there are many refuges in California that could be included as a field trip.
Resources:
California Central Valley Habitat Joint Venture
<http://ceres.ca.gov/wetlands/whats_new/vernal_sjq.html>Yahoo search site for Department of the Interior/Fish and Wildlife.
<http://www.yahoo.com/Government/U_S__Government/Executive_Branch/Departments_and_Agencies/Department_of_the_Interior/Fish_and_Wildlife_Service/>Duck Unlimited
<http://www.ducks.org/>Department of Fish and Game
<http://www.fws.gov/>Wetlands Project co-sponsored by Earth Stewards Program
<http://www.chicojr.chico.k12.ca.us/activities/es.html>Cosumnes River Project
<http://www.cosumnes.org/benefits.htm>California National Wildlife Refuges/Marine Sanctuaries
<http://www.gorp.com/gorp/resource/US_NWR/ca.htm>Central California Regional Wildlife Refuge Map Northern & Southern CA maps also available
<http://www.gorp.com/gorp/location/ca/wrfcc_ca.htm>Additional Refuge Map/California
<http://greennature.com/travel/california.php>
California Academic Content Standards:
Grade 4:
Number Sense
1.0 Students understand place value of whole numbers and decimals to two decimal places, how these relate to simple fractions, and use concepts of negative numbers.1.6 write tenths and hundredths in decimal and fraction notation and know the fraction and decimal equivalents for halves and fourths (e.g., 1/2 = 0.5 or .50; 7/4 = 1 3/4 = 1.75)Algebra and Functions
1.0 Students use and interpret variables, mathematical symbols, and properties to write and simplify expressions and sentences.1.4 use and interpret formulas (e.g., area = length x width or A = lw) to answer questions about quantities and their relationshipsStatistics, Data Analysis and Probability
2.0 Students make predictions for simple probability situations.2.1 represent all possible outcomes for a simple probability situation in an organized way (e.g., tables, grids, tree diagrams)
2.2 express outcomes of experimental probability situations verbally and numerically (e.g., 3 out of 4; 3/4)Mathematical Reasoning
2.0 Students use strategies, skills, and concepts in finding solutions.2.6 make precise calculations and check the validity of the results from the context of the problemGrade 5:
Number Sense
1.0 Students compute with very large and very small numbers, positive integers, decimals, and fractions and understand the relationship between decimals, fractions, and percents. They understand the relative magnitudes of numbers.1.2 interpret percents as part of a hundred; find decimal and percent equivalents for common fractions and explain why they represent the same value; compute a given percent of a whole number2.0 Students perform calculations and solve problems involving addition, subtraction, and simple multiplication and division of fractions and decimals.
2.1 add, subtract, multiply, and divide with decimals; add with negative integers; subtract positive integers from negative integers; and verify the reasonableness of the results
2.4 understand the concept of multiplication and division of fractions
2.5 compute and perform simple multiplication and division of fractions and apply these procedures to solving problemsAlgebra and Functions
1.0 Students use variables in simple expressions, compute the value of the expression for specific values of the variable, and plot and interpret the results.1.1 use information taken from a graph or equation to answer questions about a problem situationStatistics, Data Analysis and Probability
1.0 Students display, analyze, compare, and interpret different data sets, including data sets of different sizes.1.3 use fractions and percentages to compare data sets of different sizeMathematical Reasoning
2.0 Students use strategies, skills and concepts in finding solutions2.5 indicate the relative advantages of exact and approximate solutions to problems and give answers to a specified degree of accuracy
NCTM K-4:
Standard 1 Mathematics as Problem Solving
Standard 2 Mathematics as Communication
Standard 4 Mathematical Connections
Standard 8 Whole Number Computation
Standard 11 Statistics and Probability
Standard 12 Fractions and Decimals
NCTM 5-8:
Standard 1 Mathematics as Problem Solving
Standard 2 Mathematics as Communication
Standard 4 Mathematical Connections
Standard 5 Number and Number Relationships
Standard 6 Number Systems and Number Theory
Standard 7 Computation and Estimation
Standard 10 Statistics
Standard 11 Probability
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Revised August 24, 2000
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